Rwanda joins the World in celebration of World Meteorological Day

On this Wednesday 23^rd March 2016, Rwanda joins the World in celebrating the World Meteorological Day with the theme: “Hotter, Drier, Wetter. Face the Future”. 

The theme was chosen due to the fact that our climate is changing, and this is not just a future scenario, it is happening now. The climate will continue to change over the coming decades as more and more heat-trapping greenhouse gases emitted by human activities accumulate in the atmosphere. 

The world just had its hottest year 2015, hottest five year period and hottest decade. The fact is that on record 15 of the 16 hottest years have occurred this century. 2011-2015 was the hottest five-year period on record. Climate change increased the risk of excess heat, by significant margin according to scientific assessments. 

Commenting on the World Meteorological Day, John Ntaganda Semafara the Director General at Meteo Rwanda and the Permanent Representative of Rwanda with the World Meteorological Organization said that today is a historic day for the 53^rd year of Rwanda being a member of World Meteorological Organization and the 65^th year since the World Meteorological Organization was recognized as a specialized Agency of the United Nations. 

The global average surface temperature in 2015 smashed all previous records, and was about 0.73°C above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0°C. For the first time, the temperature reached the milestone of 1°C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period. This means we are already half-way towards the 2° C limit, above which life on the planet will become increasingly precarious.

Mr. Musoni Didace, Division Manager of Data Observations, Quality Control and Processing Division said that from the meteorological data records, Rwanda experienced the increase of about 1°C which is almost in agreement with the World Global Concern. 

Rainfall varies naturally from year to year and from decade to decade, influenced by a Global circulation phenomenon often influenced by the El Niño and other climate drivers.

In addition to natural climate variability, climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions will have an increasing impact on the water cycle. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase during the 21st century.

Wet areas will become wetter, and dry areas drier. The extent and speed of these changes will depend on whether we achieve the target of keeping temperature increases to less than 2°Celsius above the pre-industrial era.

Drought in East Africa in 1998/1999 into early 2000 resulted in widespread loss of life and food shortages. Most of the Southern and Eastern parts of Rwanda were impacted heavily by this drought. The arrival of El Niño in 2015 brought significant rains in the Equatorial East Africa and in particular to Rwanda Central and Western parts of the country realized above normal rainfalls and some pockets of Eastern parts experienced drier conditions than was predicted mainly due to local characteristics. 

Rwanda Meteorological Agency as the country’s authority in weather and climate monitoring and related information dissemination, was able to generate early warnings with regard to the current El Nino and on timely basis was able to issue and disseminate warnings about likely extreme weather events of high impacts. 

The Director General of Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) thanked the Government of Rwanda which responded promptly to the information given by Meteo Rwanda by martialing both human and material resources to contain the impacts of likely disasters through inter-ministerial response committees that were strengthened.  

Fortunately, the world’s governments are now fully convinced of the scientific evidence of climate change and the need to take urgent action. More research and investment is needed for advancing low-carbon technologies, particularly in the energy sector and environmental management. As of now many policies, technologies and actions are available, and their deployment needs to be scaled up locally as well as internationally. We therefore call upon individual citizens, community leaders; private sector organizations, civil society organizations, local government, regional organizations and the United Nations system to all contribute towards combating climate change impacts.

Remarks by Director General of Meteo Rwanda launching the Enhancing National Climate Services Program and the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture

 

Mr. John Ntaganda Semafara, Direcror General of Meteo officiating the Launch

The representative of CIAT Africa

The USAID Rwanda representative

The RAB representative

Ladies and Gentlemen

All protocol observed!

It is my pleasure to be here today in this joint occasion of launching of the Enhancing National Climate Services Program of Rwanda Meteorology Agency and the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture: Empowering Farmers to Manage Risk and Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda.  

Distinguished guest, climate information plays a crucial role in national development planning, managing climate risks and maximizing opportunities. Availability of decision-relevant climate information about the past climate, recent trends, likely future trajectories, and associated impacts is a prerequisite for climate-informed decision making.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Rwanda Meteorology Agency is the main provider of climate information and weather stations are the main sources of climate and weather data. In this regards, one of our major challenge has been a 15-year gap in observations from 1994 to 2009, a result of Rwanda’s recent traumatic history that had weather stations’ infrastructure at near collapse.  This gap has been a serious challenge in the effort to reconstruct a long historical time series and provide the required services. 

To overcome this, the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and its Partners, has made progress to fill the data gaps thorough IRI’s ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) initiative. As, a result of the ENACTS initiative implemented at Meteo Rwanda, we have now complete rainfall and temperature data for every 5kmgrid across Rwanda. The availability of this high-resolution, spa­tially and temporally continuous climate data is transformative and will be critical for delivering climate information at the community level.  

However, availability of climate data may not necessarily lead to their uptake by itself. Climate information must be made available to users and users need to be engaged on the value and application of climate information products. The ENACTS initiate has also enabled Meteo Rwanda to provide access a verities of climate information products through the Internet. This interactive online tool will be demonstrated here today.

Building on the innovative data sets and information products developed by ENACTS, the Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture project that is being launched today will enable Meteo Rwanda to provide climate information to agriculture at different levels (from farmers to government ministries). This will empower farmers to manage climate risk and adapt to a ahanging climate. This will hep to improve agricultural planning and food security management at both local and central government levels.

By the end of the project period, nearly a million farmers will have timely access to useful climate services. They will have better opportunities to transform their livelihoods through improved agricultural productivity.

The Agricultural planners, policy makers, investors, and food security specialists will be able to respond more effectively to droughts, floods and other climate-related risks. I understand that at the end of the project, a national network of climate services will be operational, with key national agencies able to sustainably deliver climate services to farmers.

Towards the end of my remarks, I would like to thank IRI and the Africa Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) for supporting the implementation of ENACTS in Rwanda. I would also like to thank   USAID Rwanda for funding the new project and  sponsoring this launch.

With this few remarks, I thank you all and I wish a nice day.

SEASONAL FORECAST FOR MARCH TO MAY (MAM) 2016

Rwanda Meteorology Agency (METEO RWANDA) hereby releases the seasonal rainfall forecast for March to May 2016.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH TO MAY 2016

 Regional and international Climate scientists involved in the prediction of seasonal rainfall converged in Nairobi, KENYA, at the  IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), from 15 -20 February to analyze and deliberate on the historical data of rainfall and temperature  from across the ten countries (Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda). Several world research Centre’s were represented and after deliberations the scientists came up with a consensus forecast for the IGAD region and the affiliated countries of Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi.
 

For Rwanda we used historical rainfall and temperature data for more than 45 years from different stations across the country with sea surface temperatures from the global oceans (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans).

From the Statistical and Dynamical analyses done for each zone in Rwanda, the seasonal forecast obtained is as follows: The Eastern Province (Ngoma, Gatsibo, Bugesera, Kirehe, Rwamagana, Kayonza and Nyagatare), Kigali City (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Gasabo) and Southern Province (Kamonyi, Muhanga, Ruhango, Nyanza, Huye, Gisagara, Nyaruguru and Nyamagabe) are expected to have a normal rainfall season with tendency to slightly above normal in certain places due to their unique characteristics.

The Western Province (Rusizi, Nyamasheke, Karongi, Rubavu, Nyabihu and Ngororero), and Northern Province (Rulindo, Musanze, Bulera, Gicumbi and Gakenke) are expected to have normal to above normal rainfall in many places.

The rainfall distribution in Rwanda has been divided into two categories which are as follows: above normal and normal to slightly above normal rainfall according to the cumulative range of rainfall amounts during the period of March to May rainfall seasons:

Above Normal= >400 mm;

Normal= 350-400 mm.

 

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH TO MAY 2016

The powerful 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon has passed its peak but remains strong and will continue to influence the global climate, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization. It is expected to attain neutral conditions by May or June 2016. It is too early to predict whether there will be a swing to La Niña (the opposite of El Niño) after that but we in Meteo Rwanda shall continue to provide you with updates.
 

Expected impacts in various sectors

The normal to above normal rainfall expected during the March to May rainfall season may cause floods and other related disasters such as landslides,destruction of houses and other weather related impacts. Thefore relevant authorities responsible for infrastructures,health,agriculture and other vurnerable sectors should put in place both preventive and mitigative strategies to minimize loss of life and property.

The above normal rainfall during the season may result into the following:

• Floods and landslides over some parts of the country.   
• Reduced agricultural activities in some areas due to landslides, floods and water logging in some areas.
• Damage to Infrastructure in some parts of the country.   
• Increased occurrence of water borne diseases.

N.B This outlook will be supplemented by the regular updates of different timescales (24-hours, 3-days, 5-days and 10-days forecasts and regular monthly updates) and other advisories issued by Rwanda Meteorology Agency.

 Done on 02 March, 2016.