SEASONAL FORECAST FOR MARCH TO MAY (MAM) 2016

Rwanda Meteorology Agency (METEO RWANDA) hereby releases the seasonal rainfall forecast for March to May 2016.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH TO MAY 2016

 Regional and international Climate scientists involved in the prediction of seasonal rainfall converged in Nairobi, KENYA, at the  IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), from 15 -20 February to analyze and deliberate on the historical data of rainfall and temperature  from across the ten countries (Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda). Several world research Centre’s were represented and after deliberations the scientists came up with a consensus forecast for the IGAD region and the affiliated countries of Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi.
 

For Rwanda we used historical rainfall and temperature data for more than 45 years from different stations across the country with sea surface temperatures from the global oceans (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans).

From the Statistical and Dynamical analyses done for each zone in Rwanda, the seasonal forecast obtained is as follows: The Eastern Province (Ngoma, Gatsibo, Bugesera, Kirehe, Rwamagana, Kayonza and Nyagatare), Kigali City (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Gasabo) and Southern Province (Kamonyi, Muhanga, Ruhango, Nyanza, Huye, Gisagara, Nyaruguru and Nyamagabe) are expected to have a normal rainfall season with tendency to slightly above normal in certain places due to their unique characteristics.

The Western Province (Rusizi, Nyamasheke, Karongi, Rubavu, Nyabihu and Ngororero), and Northern Province (Rulindo, Musanze, Bulera, Gicumbi and Gakenke) are expected to have normal to above normal rainfall in many places.

The rainfall distribution in Rwanda has been divided into two categories which are as follows: above normal and normal to slightly above normal rainfall according to the cumulative range of rainfall amounts during the period of March to May rainfall seasons:

Above Normal= >400 mm;

Normal= 350-400 mm.

 

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH TO MAY 2016

The powerful 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon has passed its peak but remains strong and will continue to influence the global climate, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization. It is expected to attain neutral conditions by May or June 2016. It is too early to predict whether there will be a swing to La Niña (the opposite of El Niño) after that but we in Meteo Rwanda shall continue to provide you with updates.
 

Expected impacts in various sectors

The normal to above normal rainfall expected during the March to May rainfall season may cause floods and other related disasters such as landslides,destruction of houses and other weather related impacts. Thefore relevant authorities responsible for infrastructures,health,agriculture and other vurnerable sectors should put in place both preventive and mitigative strategies to minimize loss of life and property.

The above normal rainfall during the season may result into the following:

• Floods and landslides over some parts of the country.   
• Reduced agricultural activities in some areas due to landslides, floods and water logging in some areas.
• Damage to Infrastructure in some parts of the country.   
• Increased occurrence of water borne diseases.

N.B This outlook will be supplemented by the regular updates of different timescales (24-hours, 3-days, 5-days and 10-days forecasts and regular monthly updates) and other advisories issued by Rwanda Meteorology Agency.

 Done on 02 March, 2016.